Bustin’ the Bookie – 09/09

It is here! The DASH Sports gambling feature! Jorfi will research the lines that he likes, is betting on, and give you his LOCKS. So let’s get rich kids!

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Unit Count

Even

Review

We decided to sit out on Week 1 to get a fell for everyting. The transfer portal makes predicting week 1 such a crap shoot so we decided to sit out a week and give Vegas a week to make some money before we brake the bank the rest of the year! That being said, we probably would’ve missed on the LSU game because no way in hell did I think LSU could ever drop to the likes of FSU and Mike Norvell.

What Did We Learn?

#1 LSU is a dumpster fire

#2 There is Georgia, Bama, Ohio St and then everybody else… For like the 5th straight year

#3 That was the greatest week 1 in the history of College Football

Prop Bets of the Week

  1. Haynes King OVER 232.5 Passing Yards (TAMU QB vs App St)
    • The App St defense is honestly not going to be much better (most likely worse) than the Sam Houston D the Aggies saw last weekend. King threw for 365 yards last weekend and likely could’ve surpassed 400 if he played the whole game.
    • While the Aggies are likely to try and establish a run game considering how poor the OL performed in that aspect last week, I like to believe that Jimbo is going to continue to open up the offense and give King plenty of opportunities to get his in the air.
  2. Baker Mayfield OVER 8.5 Rushing Yards (Carolina QB vs Cleveland)
    • Short and simple Baker is elusive and likely will be running for his life. Sacks don’t count for rushing yards in the NFL.

Everyday and Twice on Sunday

These are the picks that I am playing and putting one unit on.

  1. Over 67.5 (Bama vs Texas -Alt Line +115)
    • Sarkisian can say whatever he wants but we all know he is going to leave it all on the table. Barring a 3-4 turnover day with a stagnant offense, you will see Quinn Ewers and the starters play all 4 quarters. Which will likely get Texas close to a backdoor cover.
    • Why does the cover matter for the over? Well you see kids, Bama is favored by 20 and they will more than likely end up around the 45 point range at worst. Which means Texas would have to get to 24-28 ish to cover. Therefore putting the O/U 68-72 type range.
  2. Colts -6.5 vs Houston
    • Buy 1/2 point to keep you from the push, but there is a chance the Texans keep it close. However, the Colts bring back one of the more talented offenses and I think people are sleeping on what Matt Ryan did the last time he had any kind of protection.
    • The Texans looked good in the off season but that was fools gold. The Colts are more likely to win by 4 touchdowns than the Texans are to cover 7.
  3. TAMU Over 36.5 (Team Total vs App St)
    • Vegas is licking their chops because they every line for this game based off final scores and not actual game play. Vegas just wants you to play the transitive property game and see that App St should’ve beat a Power 5 team while A&M struggled scoring against a FCS team. Not so fast my friend! A&M was suffering issues up front and the App St defense will probably be the worst defense A&M faces all year.
    • If the App St offense puts up enough points to keep A&M from pulling their starters A&M will likely win this game 52-17 or 52-24.
  4. UCF -5.5 v Louisville
    • Louisville couldn’t stop an inferior Syracuse offense last weekend and it won’t get any easier when Ole Miss transfer John Rhyse Plumlee and the Knights host the Cardinals in Orlando tonight.
    • The over is high so I don’t really like that, but I expect a lot of points and I think Louisville isn’t going to be able to keep up with the UCF offense. Gus Malzhan special right here. UCF 48 – Louisville 37
  5. BYU -2.5 vs Baylor
    • The Bears are traveling up to Provo which is just an awful place to play. Baylor is losing a lot on defense and a 2.5 point line BASICALLY means pick’em in my head. I like the Cougars a lot.
    • Mormons>Baptists.
    • Many wives=Happy Lives

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LOCKS

These are the picks that I am playing and putting two units on.

10. It is too early in the season to be this cocky. Let’s get some more samples and then hammer their mistakes later in the season.

    This article is based off of opening lines and is written early in the week. If you want these picks before the lines move throughout the week, subscribe to the website and we will have your picks out by Tuesday at 8am CST!

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